Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.