Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."